No... not the one everyone else is blog'n about.
Lots of buzz this year at TiE about Facebook, Facebook applications, and the like. Clearly a pretty big phenomenon so your 's truly needs to give it a try.
...fast forward a few weeks.
Ok, great service, cool product, etc. You have heard it all a million times. I was quite surprised at the number of folks out of my various professional and social circles that are on Facebook. I guess that just means I'm fashionably late to the party as usual. I did right away find a buddy from my old GE days that I had long since lost track of, get reconnected and now share fishing stories. However, that's not the real story.
My biggest surprise is the reaction of my kids and of my buddie's kids when they discovered I was on Facebook. It was as though dad had arrived at the Friday night college keg party. Bad enough that I showed up and worse still that I even knew where the party was. I could literally watch the Facebook cool factor disintegrate right before my eyes. Admittedly, my sample size of two isn't statistically significant. However, it does seem to me that Facebook, in going mainstream, has compromised the trusted relationship it had with its initial "college dorm" user base.
However, tongue-in-cheek, I predict the survival of Facebook. In fact, given the size of the Facebook juggernaut, any erosion in their share among college age kids should have no meaningful impact on their business. It does raise several interesting questions about the sustainability of the buzz inside any given social network. For example, does someone exploit this by launching a new network for each successive generation? Does Facebook do more to create "space" for various demographic groups?
In the end its all about trust. We take it for granted when its there. When its compromised, we look at everything in a new light.
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Your comment on the buzz-kill effect of later stage adopters mirrors discussions on the psychographics of adopters and adoption strategy - early adopters are into technology for the cool factor. They are willing to take early stage technology risk for the perceived prestige/bragging rights. As the coolness wears off (with the addition of later stage adopters to the party) - the early folks will disappear. A firms executive just has to be able add new customers faster than the coolness wears off. The first stage defines cool as stuff no one has yet. The next stage wants stuff validated as cool.
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